Explainer: What's the fallout from Israel's airstrikes on Yemen

by Murad Abdo

ADEN, Yemen, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- A fresh round of Israeli airstrikes on Yemen's capital Sanaa and subsequent retaliatory missile attacks on Israel have intensified fears that the Middle East is sliding deeper into a wider confrontation.

Despite ongoing diplomatic appeals for de-escalation, this exchange of fire underscores an alarming new phase in the conflict -- one that experts warn could be more prolonged and unpredictable.

WHAT HAPPENED

Israeli jets struck a power station south of Sanaa on Aug. 17. Houthi-run al-Masirah TV said the strike knocked out electricity generators but caused no casualties. Residents described hearing two loud explosions, while eyewitnesses reported plumes of smoke rising from the facility.

Hours later, Israel's military said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen toward central Israel. The launch triggered sirens in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other cities, prompting residents to rush to shelters. The missile caused no casualties or damage.

Again on Friday, a missile fired from Yemen landed in central Israel without causing casualties, according to the Israeli military and emergency services. Israeli media said the missile appeared to have fragmented in midair, with shrapnel falling near Ben Gurion Airport.

The Israel Defense Forces said the launch came just hours after it had intercepted a drone fired from Yemen toward villages near the Gaza Strip. Earlier on Friday, Israeli jets again struck energy infrastructure in Sanaa, while the Houthis claimed they had targeted Ben Gurion Airport with drones and a hypersonic missile in response to "Israel's ongoing campaign in Gaza."

The Israeli strikes marked another episode in the cycle of action and counteraction since November 2023, when the Houthis began targeting Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea, saying the moves were in support of Palestinians during Israel's war in Gaza.

WHY IT MATTERS

The escalation underscores the increasing entanglement of Yemen in broader regional tensions. By striking infrastructure in Sanaa, Israel aims to deter further missile and drone launches. Yet the Houthis retain significant capacity to disrupt maritime routes in the Red Sea, a vital artery for global trade.

Yemeni analysts say that the Houthis' ability to strike far beyond Yemen underscores the risk of the conflict spreading across multiple fronts.

The latest developments also cast uncertainty over a fragile de-escalation deal reached in May between Washington and the Houthis, which had temporarily halted mutual strikes in the Red Sea. If American ships are again targeted, the truce could collapse, potentially drawing the U.S. directly back into confrontation.

"Any continuation of these exchanges will place the Red Sea at the heart of a multi-front crisis," Yemeni political analyst Muqbel Naji said, warning that international commercial lanes could face "greater exposure to disruption" if escalation continues.

He observed that the Houthis appear to have been reinforcing their positions and demonstrating their ability to sustain operations. "Israel's strikes may slow Houthi operations but are unlikely to dismantle the group's military capabilities," he said.

Muqbel warned that the Israelis should bear in mind the lessons of recent months. "Despite U.S. air and naval superiority, American-led strikes earlier this year failed to halt Houthi operations."

WHAT LIES AHEAD

Analysts believe further retaliation from the Houthis is highly probable, whether through intensified missile strikes on Israeli cities or new attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Others caution that Israel may expand its campaign to include more strategic infrastructure in Yemen.

Observers note that reliance on airpower alone does little to resolve underlying tensions and can instead widen the scope of violence. Each new round of attacks, they argue, will further undermine stability in a region already burdened by overlapping crises.

With the Houthis vowing further retaliation and Israel signaling its readiness to intensify military operations, the region faces the peril of an escalating cycle with no clear off-ramp. A conflict that originated in Gaza is now metastasizing into new theaters, transforming Yemen -- a nation already afflicted by a decade of civil war -- into a dangerous and active front in a rapidly widening regional confrontation. ■